Tue Jan 06 03:00:00 UTC 2026: AI Model Fails to Predict Supreme Court Decisions, Raises Questions About AI in Law

The Story:
A new study published on May 9, 2024, reveals that an AI model developed by researchers at Northwestern University and the University of Texas at Austin failed to accurately predict the outcomes of U.S. Supreme Court cases. The model, trained on over 70 years of data, only achieved a prediction accuracy slightly above chance, performing worse than simple baseline models. This casts doubt on the feasibility of using current AI technology to reliably forecast complex legal decisions.

The study, which analyzed over 28,000 Supreme Court cases, highlights the challenges in applying AI to nuanced, human-centric fields like law. Researchers suggest the unpredictability stems from factors beyond readily available data, including the justices’ evolving ideologies, case-specific arguments, and the dynamic nature of legal interpretation. While AI may assist with legal research, predicting judicial outcomes remains a significant hurdle.

Key Takeaways:

  • An AI model designed to predict U.S. Supreme Court decisions performed poorly.
  • The model’s prediction accuracy was only slightly above chance, despite being trained on over 70 years of case data.
  • The study, published on May 9, 2024, suggests the complexities of legal reasoning are difficult for AI to replicate.
  • Researchers from Northwestern University and the University of Texas at Austin conducted the study.
  • The findings raise questions about the applicability of current AI technology to predicting outcomes in complex legal environments.

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