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Trump’s Vow to ‘Take Back’ Venezuelan Oil Faces Major Obstacles After Maduro’s Capture

WASHINGTON D.C. – President Donald Trump’s pledge to revive Venezuela’s oil production after the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro faces significant hurdles, experts warn. While Trump has promised to “take back” Venezuela’s vast oil reserves and unleash them onto the global market, doing so would require overcoming dilapidated infrastructure, legal complexities, political uncertainty, and an already oversupplied global oil market.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 303 billion barrels. However, due to years of underinvestment, mismanagement, corruption, and the impact of U.S. sanctions, current production is a fraction of its former peak. Output in November was just 860,000 barrels per day, compared to 3.7 million barrels per day in 1970.

Analysts say simply lifting sanctions wouldn’t solve the problem. Reviving production to previous levels would necessitate massive investments and could take years. The state oil company, PDVSA, suffers from corruption, a lack of expertise, and an inability to invest in the country’s petroleum sector.

Despite Trump’s assertions that the U.S. would “run” Venezuela and that U.S. companies would invest billions, the legality and practicality of such a plan are being questioned. Experts emphasize that under international law, Venezuela has sovereign rights over its natural resources. Previous nationalization efforts by the Chavez government, which led to multi-billion dollar arbitration awards against Venezuela, also make companies hesitant to invest.

“Oil companies are not likely to rush into a situation where the state is in turmoil, security is lacking, and no clear path forward for political stability exists,” said Scott Montgomery, a global energy expert at the University of Washington.

Some analysts estimate that it could take five to seven years to restore Venezuela’s production to peak levels under the “absolute best” circumstances. The country’s membership in OPEC, which sets production quotas, also presents a potential limitation on future output.

While some market analysts are cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a near-term production increase, the overall consensus is that reviving Venezuela’s oil sector is a complex and challenging undertaking fraught with political and economic risks.

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, who was Maduro’s deputy, is now leading the country following a ruling by Venezuela’s Supreme Court.

Maduro is scheduled to appear in a New York court on Monday to face charges related to alleged drug trafficking and working with criminal gangs.

Russia, China, Iran and Brazil, among other countries, have accused Washington of violating international law, while nations including Israel, Argentina and Greece have welcomed Maduro’s forced removal.

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