Sun Jan 04 09:10:00 UTC 2026: ## Tien Favored in Brisbane Clash, But Ugo Carabelli Offers Betting Value, Says Stats Insider
Brisbane, Australia – Learner Tien is heavily favored to win his round of 32 match against Camilo Ugo Carabelli at the 2026 ATP Brisbane tournament on Sunday, according to predictive analytics experts at Stats Insider.
Their model, based on 10,000 simulations, gives Tien an 82% chance of victory. However, Stats Insider is recommending a bet on Ugo Carabelli, citing an edge found when comparing their data-driven probabilities to the current betting odds.
“Even though our predictive analytics model suggests that Tien is more likely to win the match, betting on Ugo Carabelli to win is our preferred option due to the edge we found,” Stats Insider stated in their match preview.
Currently, TAB Australia lists Ugo Carabelli at $5.50 to win the match, while Tien is offered at $1.14. For the first set, Ugo Carabelli is at $4.33 and Tien at $1.22.
Despite being less confident in Tien winning the first set (compared to the overall match), Stats Insider recommends a bet on Tien to win it at $1.83, highlighting the value available in the odds.
The match is scheduled to begin at 7:30pm AEDT on Sunday.
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For more tennis betting tips and predictions, visit Stats Insider, Australia’s leading predictive analytics website.
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