Sat Jan 03 08:30:00 UTC 2026: Here’s a summary of the text and a rewritten version as a news article:
Summary:
A recent article in Foreign Affairs analyzes the dire economic and political situation in Cuba. Despite initial hopes following the normalization of relations with the U.S. and internal reforms, Cuba is experiencing its worst crisis since the Soviet collapse. The author, Michael J. Bustamante, argues that external factors like tightened U.S. sanctions and the pandemic contributed to the crisis, but the Cuban government’s reluctance to embrace deeper economic liberalization and democratization is the primary cause. He highlights failed economic policies, currency unification issues, and a lack of trust in government institutions, leading to widespread migration, protests, and a struggling economy. While a small private sector has emerged, it faces limitations. Bustamante concludes that Cuba needs comprehensive economic reforms and political liberalization to avoid further decline but questions whether the current leadership is willing to implement them. He points to the dangers of further delays and their impact on the Cuban people.
News Article:
Cuba Faces Existential Crisis as Economic Woes Deepen, Exodus Continues
Havana – Cuba is teetering on the brink of collapse, facing its most severe economic crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union, according to a new analysis in Foreign Affairs. The article, penned by Michael J. Bustamante, a professor of Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami, paints a grim picture of an island nation grappling with a failing economy, mass emigration, and increasing social unrest.
Hopes were high in 2014 after the Obama administration’s detente. But, Cuba failed to take full advantage due to shortsighted policies. President Miguel Díaz-Canel is facing enormous pressure to address a struggling economy after GDP has declined 11 percent since 2020. The economic issues have been compounded by natural disasters, including Hurricane Melissa, and outbreaks of dengue fever.
Bustamante argues that while external factors, such as the Trump administration’s rollback of Obama-era policies and the COVID-19 pandemic have exacerbated the situation, the root of the problem lies within Cuba itself. He points to the government’s reluctance to fully embrace economic liberalization, including failing to adopt a stable exchange market, as key factors in the island’s economic woes. “Despite Raúl’s reforms, authorities have been unwilling to break decisively from the country’s sclerotic central planning model,” Bustamante writes.
The article highlights the disastrous consequences of Cuba’s monetary policies, including a failed currency unification plan that led to rampant inflation and a thriving black market for U.S. dollars. This economic instability has fueled mass migration, with over a million Cubans leaving the island in the last five years, mostly heading to the United States.
While a small private sector has emerged in recent years, accounting for a significant portion of tax revenue and retail sales, it faces numerous limitations, including restrictions on foreign currency transactions and a lack of government support.
Bustamante concludes that Cuba desperately needs comprehensive economic reforms, including further privatization, attracting foreign investment, and unifying exchange rates. He questions whether the current leadership has the will or the capacity to implement such changes. “Change will come with steep costs thanks to years of economic policy waffling and the state’s refusal to give Cubans a meaningful political voice in shaping their future. But change is necessary. Each day of further delay prolongs the population’s suffering.” The article suggests that without bold action, Cuba risks sliding further into economic decline and political instability.
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