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Possible India-Pakistan Conflict Looms in 2026, Warns US Think Tank

Washington, D.C. – A report by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a prominent US think tank, has raised concerns about a potential armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026. The report, based on a survey of American foreign policy experts, cites heightened terrorist activity as a key contributing factor to the escalating tensions.

The CFR report suggests that a second Trump administration plans to actively work to de-escalate conflicts around the world including India and Pakistan, as well as other international hot spots such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Gaza Strip, Ukraine, Cambodia, and Thailand.

Tensions between India and Pakistan already flared up in May of this year, following a deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, which resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians. In response, the Indian Army launched “Operation Sindoor” on May 6th, targeting terrorist camps within Pakistan and reportedly eliminating over 100 terrorists and destroying nine camps.

Pakistan retaliated between May 7th and 10th with drone attacks aimed at Indian military and civilian targets. However, the Indian Army successfully neutralized all incursions, preventing casualties or damage.

The escalating situation led to de-escalation talks, with the Director Generals of Military Operations from both sides agreeing to cease firing and military action along the Line of Control (LoC) on May 10th.

The report also highlights another potential regional conflict, pointing to a moderate likelihood of armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2026. This potential conflict is predicted to stem from resurgent cross-border militant attacks, exacerbated by Pakistan’s recent airstrike on Kabul targeting the leader of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Noor Wali Mehsud, which sparked a border conflict in October.

The CFR’s assessment paints a concerning picture for regional stability in South Asia, suggesting that diplomatic efforts to address terrorism and cross-border tensions will be crucial in preventing further escalation.

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