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Headline: NFL Playoff Races Heat Up: ESPN Analytics Projects Live Chances and 2026 Draft Order

With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, the NFL playoff picture remains far from settled, according to ESPN Analytics. Their live playoff chance projections, updated throughout each game using in-game win probabilities combined with the Football Power Index (FPI), are providing fans with a real-time look at each team’s postseason destiny.

Currently, four playoff spots (two in each conference) and seven division titles are still up for grabs. So far, the Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Bills, Chargers, Eagles, Seahawks, Rams, Bears and 49ers have secured a post season berth.

The top seed in either conference remains unclaimed, and several key races are being closely monitored. A Thursday night showdown between the Broncos and Chiefs is particularly significant, as a Broncos victory would significantly boost their chances of securing the AFC’s top seed and home-field advantage.

Beyond the playoff battles, ESPN Analytics is also projecting the 2026 NFL Draft order for the bottom 18 teams. Several first-round picks have already been traded, adding intrigue to which teams will have the opportunity to select top prospects like Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Ohio State’s Arvell Reese, or Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love. The Falcons, Jaguars, Colts, and Packers picks currently belong to the Rams, Browns, Jets and Cowboys respectively.

ESPN’s projections are powered by a combination of live in-game win probabilities, which factor in score, time remaining, field position, and team strength, and the FPI, which simulates the remainder of the season based on each team’s strength and schedule. These simulations provide a live, updated look at playoff, division, and seeding chances, offering fans a comprehensive view of the evolving NFL landscape.

Key Takeaways:

  • Playoff races remain tight with two weeks to go.
  • ESPN Analytics is providing live, updated playoff probabilities and projections.
  • The 2026 NFL Draft order is also being projected, considering traded first-round picks.
  • Broncos have a significant opportunity to clinch the AFC’s top seed this week.

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