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Yemen’s Fragmentation Deepens as Separatists Expand Influence, Threatening Economic Collapse

Hadramout & al-Mahra, Yemen – Yemen is facing deepening fragmentation as the Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by a regional power, expands its control in the eastern governorates of Hadramout and al-Mahra. This push threatens to further destabilize the war-torn nation, jeopardizing economic stability and potentially prolonging the already decade-long conflict.

The STC’s advances have prompted warnings from Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council head, Rashad al-Alimi, who cited the IMF’s reported suspension of activities in the country as a “wake-up call.” Al-Alimi emphasized that Yemen’s fragile economy, already reeling from years of war, cannot withstand further tensions. He called for the withdrawal of forces from outside the governorates to de-escalate the situation.

The STC seeks secession for the territories that formerly made up South Yemen before unification in 1990. Their expansion creates a multiparty arena of competition for resource-rich regions and exacerbates divisions within the anti-Houthi camp. The Houthis, who control the capital Sanaa and much of the northwest, are benefiting from the disintegration of the front opposing it and its rivals being preoccupied by internal conflicts rather than by the Houthis themselves.

Analysts warn of the fragmentation of the state on political, geographical, and representational levels. The situation is particularly sensitive in Hadramout and al-Mahra, which include key border crossings with Saudi Arabia and Oman and are tied to trade, smuggling, and irregular migration. The IMF’s move underscores the fragility of the security and institutional environment, hindering support programs.

Experts recommend a broader approach based on three interlinked pillars: redefining the national project with a viable federal framework, establishing a security model based on local forces under national control, and creating an economic deal for transparent resource management and revenue distribution.

Without these steps, Yemen risks a gradual disintegration from the peripheries, with the economy as the first casualty. This could lead to a prolonged stability crisis with severe local and regional consequences.

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