Sun Nov 30 05:02:10 UTC 2025: Summary:

According to the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP), India’s population is expected to stabilize around 1.8-1.9 billion by 2080, thanks to a significant decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is now below the replacement level at 1.9. This decline is attributed to increased development, education, female literacy, access to contraceptives, and changing attitudes towards marriage and childbearing. While birth rates are falling, life expectancy is increasing, leading to a growing elderly population and new challenges in elderly care.

News Article:

India’s Population Projected to Stabilize Below 2 Billion by 2080

Kolkata, November 30, 2025 – India’s population is expected to peak at 1.8 to 1.9 billion around 2080 and then stabilize, according to projections released by the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP). This anticipated stabilization is primarily driven by a significant drop in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which currently sits at 1.9, below the replacement level.

“This is a drastic decline from a TFR of 3.5 in 2000,” stated Anil Chandran, IASP General Secretary, highlighting the rapid demographic transition occurring in India.

Factors contributing to this decline include increased development, higher levels of education, and greater access to contraceptives. Notably, increased female literacy has empowered women to make more informed choices regarding marriage and family planning, leading to smaller families.

While birth rates are decreasing, improvements in healthcare are leading to increased life expectancy, resulting in a growing elderly population. This demographic shift presents new challenges, particularly in providing adequate elderly care, as younger generations increasingly migrate for work. The IASP, comprising demographers and population scientists, is actively discussing potential solutions like elderly day-care facilities.

The report also highlighted the varying TFR rates across different states. Kerala achieved replacement-level fertility in the late 1980s and now has a TFR of around 1.5. West Bengal has seen a sharp decline, with a TFR of 1.3, placing it among the lowest in the country.

The IASP, founded in 1971, continues to collaborate with organizations like UNFPA and the Population Council to address population-related challenges and promote informed policy decisions.

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