Mon Nov 03 11:10:00 UTC 2025: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Sherrill and Mamdani Lead in Final Polls Ahead of Election Day

BOSTON, MA – October 30, 2025 – In the final stretch before Election Day, Emerson College Polling, in partnership with PIX11 and The Hill, has released its final poll results for the New Jersey gubernatorial race and the New York City mayoral election. The polls indicate a tight race in New Jersey and a commanding lead for the Democratic candidate in New York City.

New Jersey Governor’s Race a Photo Finish

The New Jersey gubernatorial race remains extremely close, with Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding a slight edge over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. According to the poll of likely voters, Sherrill garners 50% support, compared to Ciattarelli’s 48%, accounting for undecided voters leaning toward a candidate. The survey highlights a significant gender divide, with men favoring Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women overwhelmingly support Sherrill by 18 points.

Both candidates have nearly identical favorability ratings, with 47% viewing Sherrill favorably and 48% viewing Ciattarelli favorably. Governor Phil Murphy’s approval rating remains low, with 34% approving and 50% disapproving of his performance. The top issue facing New Jersey voters is the economy, cited by 52% of respondents.

Mamdani Poised for Victory in NYC Mayoral Race

In New York City, Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani appears poised for a decisive victory, holding a commanding 25-point lead over Andrew Cuomo. The poll shows Mamdani with 50% support, Cuomo with 25%, and Curtis Sliwa with 21%. Mamdani has significantly increased his support among Black voters since September, jumping from 50% to 71%.

“Mamdani appears to have built a coalition across key demographics,” noted Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Mamdani enjoys broad support across age groups, with 69% of voters under 50 favoring him. Threats to democracy, the economy, and housing affordability are key concerns for New York City voters.

Methodology

The New Jersey survey was conducted between October 25-28, 2025, with a sample size of 1,000 likely voters and a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points. The New York City survey was conducted between October 25-27, 2025, with a sample size of 640 likely voters and a credibility interval of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Data was collected through MMS-to-web text, interactive voice response (NJ), and online panels. The surveys were funded by Emerson College/Nexstar Media.

Full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found at [link to full results].

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