Mon Nov 03 08:50:00 UTC 2025: Here’s a news article summarizing and rewriting the provided text:

Bitcoin’s Rally Stalls as Long-Term Holders Sell, Market Braces for Fed Decision

[City, State] – Bitcoin’s recent struggles to maintain momentum above key cost-basis levels point to fading demand and persistent selling pressure from long-term holders, according to a new analysis. After a brief recovery over the weekend, Bitcoin has retraced, mirroring patterns seen earlier in the year where rallies were quickly absorbed by overhead supply.

A failure to sustain above the short-term holder cost basis of around $113,100 is raising concerns of further weakness. If this level is not regained, analysts point to the $88,000 range as the next significant support.

“The on-chain landscape continues to reflect a market in correction and recalibration,” the report states. “Elevated long-term holder distribution and high transfer volumes to exchanges underscore a phase of demand exhaustion, suggesting the market may need extended consolidation to rebuild confidence.”

Data reveals that long-term holders are currently distributing Bitcoin at a rate of approximately 104,000 BTC per month, the most significant wave of selling since mid-July. The volume of Bitcoin transferred from long-term holders to exchanges has surged to around $293 million per day, more than double the baseline seen since November 2024. This indicates continued profit-taking by experienced investors.

Options Market Calms, but Uncertainty Looms

In the options market, volatility has eased since the October crash, with traders unwinding downside hedges. Implied volatility has declined, and the skew, which measures the relative cost of puts versus calls, has normalized, suggesting a less panicked market.

“Positioning is now closer to ‘mildly bullish/two-sided’ rather than ‘panic about new lows,’ aligning with the broader stabilization seen in Bitcoin’s recent price action,” the report notes.

However, the market’s current stability remains fragile, with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting looming large. A rate cut is widely expected and priced in. A smaller rate cut or a hawkish stance from the Fed could reignite volatility, sending traders scrambling back to buy protection.

“The market’s current calm is conditional, steady for now, but fragile if the Fed deviates from expectations,” the report concludes.

Investors are advised to exercise caution and be prepared for potential volatility depending on the Fed’s decision.

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