Fri Oct 24 10:30:00 UTC 2025: ## ISW Report: Sanctions Tighten on Russia as Fighting Intensifies in Eastern Ukraine
Washington, D.C. – October 24, 2025 – A new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) details the evolving dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine, focusing on increasing sanctions pressure on Russia and intensifying fighting on the ground.
The report highlights that major Chinese and Indian oil companies are reportedly scaling back direct purchases of Russian oil following recent U.S. sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil. The European Union has also unveiled its 19th sanctions package, targeting Russia’s energy sector, including a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports by 2027 and targeting entities involved in circumventing sanctions, including Chinese oil refineries and UAE-based facilitators.
Kremlin officials are responding to these sanctions with strong rhetoric. President Putin and Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev have publicly labeled the United States as Russia’s adversary, marking a significant shift in tone compared to previous administrations. This shift is likely an attempt to deflect blame for stalled peace negotiations and justify Russia’s continued war aims to its domestic audience.
On the battlefield, Russian forces are increasing the frequency of mechanized assaults in eastern and southern Ukraine, taking advantage of weather conditions that hamper Ukrainian drone operations. Fighting is particularly intense near Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk, where Russian forces are attempting to advance.
Despite Russian claims of establishing a bridgehead on Karantynnyi Island in Kherson Oblast, the ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces remain in control of the area. The report suggests that these claims are part of a Russian cognitive warfare campaign aimed at convincing Ukraine and its allies that a Russian victory is inevitable.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian energy and defense industrial enterprises, including the Rosneft Ryazan Oil Refinery and an ammunition depot in Belgorod Oblast. An explosion at the Plastmass munitions plant in Kopeysk, Chelyabinsk Oblast, reportedly killed twelve people, although Russian authorities attributed the incident to safety violations.
The report also details ongoing offensive operations by Russian forces in northern Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, with limited or no confirmed advances. The ISW continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide further updates as events unfold.
This report is based on open-source information and does not include classified material.
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