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**Headline: Trump’s Tariffs Could Lead to Higher Social Security Payments, But Experts Warn It’s Not a Windfall**

**By [Your Name], Reporter**

Washington D.C. – President Donald Trump’s trade policies and tariffs are poised to influence the upcoming cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits, impacting over 70 million Americans starting in 2026. While the tariffs have driven up prices and inflation, experts caution that a potentially larger COLA doesn’t necessarily translate to increased financial security for seniors.

The COLA, calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter, reflects the prior year’s inflation. Trump’s tariffs, implemented to boost domestic production and address trade imbalances, have led to higher prices on imported goods, contributing to overall inflation. This increased inflation is expected to result in a higher COLA for 2026.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has predicted a COLA of 2.7 percent, and experts suggest the final figure could range between 2.7 and 2.9 percent. However, financial professionals are raising concerns about the real-world impact of this adjustment.

“The ‘Trump bump’ is the cruelest kind of ‘raise,'” said Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com. “Tariffs are pushing prices up, which inflates the COLA seniors get. So yes, checks go up a bit more than they would have. But the same inflation driving that bump is eating the buying power before the check even clears.”

According to Ryan, tariff-driven price hikes are hitting seniors now, while the COLA is a retroactive adjustment. He estimates that the adjustment might only cover 70-80 percent of what seniors have already lost to higher prices.

Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group, noted the potential strain on the Social Security trust fund due to increased payouts. Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor at the University of Tennessee at Martin, echoed these sentiments, explaining that the COLA is “not so much a raise as simply keeping up with inflation.”

Experts also pointed out that a higher COLA often leads to increased Medicare Part B premiums, which are deducted from Social Security benefits, further eroding the perceived gains.

“This is far from a windfall,” Ryan explained. “It’s a cost-of-living adjustment, not a cost-of-living advantage. Seniors aren’t getting ahead, they’re barely treading water in choppier seas.”

While the official COLA announcement is typically made on October 15, the ongoing political stalemate and potential government shutdown could delay the release of the updated benefit amounts for seniors and disabled Americans.

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