Sun Sep 28 12:54:11 UTC 2025: **Summary:**
A recent study reveals that sanctions against Iran, intended to weaken the regime, have instead decimated the Iranian middle class. Using a “virtual Iran” model comparing Iran’s economic trajectory to similar countries without sanctions, the research demonstrates a significant shrinking of the middle class since 2012. This decline, fueled by decreased foreign investment, trade restrictions, and rampant inflation, has led to economic hardship for millions, undermining the very segment of society that historically championed moderation and reform. The authors argue that these “smart” sanctions have backfired, strengthening hardliners by creating a desperate population focused on survival rather than political change.
**News Article:**
**Study: Sanctions Decimated Iranian Middle Class, Empowering Hardliners**
**Washington D.C.** – A new study published in the European Journal of Political Economy claims that Western sanctions against Iran have backfired, crippling the nation’s middle class and inadvertently strengthening the ruling hardline regime.
The research, conducted by Professors Mohammad Reza Farzanegan and Nader Habibi, argues that sanctions, touted as a surgical tool to weaken the Iranian government, have instead acted as a “sledgehammer,” devastating the segment of society most likely to push for reform.
Using a “virtual Iran” model, the study compared Iran’s economic development to a composite of similar countries unaffected by sanctions. The results indicated a dramatic shrinking of the Iranian middle class, beginning in 2012, with a 28 percentage point deficit compared to the model by 2019.
“These aren’t abstract numbers, ” said Professor Farzanegan. “These are millions of real people – engineers, doctors, teachers, and small business owners – who saw their economic security evaporate.”
The study cites decreased foreign investment, trade restrictions, and hyperinflation as key factors in the middle class’s decline. These economic pressures crippled businesses and wiped out savings, pushing many into poverty.
Before the sanctions began, approximately 79% of Iranians identified as middle-income, but this fell to under 64% in early 2020.
The researchers argue that by weakening the middle class, sanctions have created a fertile ground for extremism. With survival taking precedence over political reform, they say Iranians are left vulnerable to government control and propaganda.
“The ultimate irony of ‘maximum pressure’ is that it created the perfect conditions for the regime’s most extreme elements to thrive,” stated Professor Habibi.
As the international community considers further sanctions, the study’s findings raise serious questions about the effectiveness and unintended consequences of this foreign policy tool. Critics argue that a more nuanced approach is needed to support democratic reforms in Iran without further harming its population.
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