Thu May 22 15:50:00 UTC 2025: **News Article:**

**Above-Normal Hurricane Season Predicted for 2025; Gulf Coast Braces for Potential Threats**

HOUSTON (ABC13) – With the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season just weeks away, residents along the Gulf Coast are preparing for what could be an active year. ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith is providing an early look at the factors that will shape the season, following a record-breaking 2024 that saw Hurricane Beryl make landfall in Southeast Texas.

This year, forecasters anticipate an ENSO-neutral pattern, or “La Nada,” meaning typical trade winds and a lack of El Niño or La Niña influence. Instead, ocean temperatures will be a major driver, with warmer waters fueling storm development and intensification. The strength of the West African Monsoon, which sends clusters of thunderstorms across the Atlantic, will also be a key factor. Saharan dust, typically present earlier in the season, can act as a limiter by suppressing storm formation.

While local weather patterns and conditions over the Caribbean will ultimately determine the specific impact on Southeast Texas, early predictions indicate an above-normal season overall. Colorado State University researchers released their outlook last month, forecasting 17 tropical storms, nine of which could become hurricanes, and four potentially reaching major hurricane status. The official NOAA outlook is expected to be released this Thursday.

Forecasters are also looking at “analog years” – past years with similar atmospheric conditions – to gain insight into the potential for 2025. Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University identified 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017 as comparable years. While Texans remember 2008 for Hurricane Ike and 2017 for Hurricane Harvey, 2006 and 1999 offer contrasting scenarios, highlighting the variability of hurricane seasons.

One unknown factor this year is the potential impact of recent budget cuts to NOAA. While outlooks and forecasts are expected to remain timely and accurate, the cuts could affect the frequency of hurricane hunter flights and other research activities crucial to understanding and predicting storm behavior.

Stay updated on the latest developments by following ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith on Facebook, X, and Instagram.

Read More