Mon May 12 10:34:08 UTC 2025: ## Europe Could Replace US as Ukraine’s Security Guarantor, Experts Say

**Cambridge, UK** – With doubts swirling around a US-brokered ceasefire in Ukraine, two Cambridge University experts are proposing a shift in security guarantees. Former British Home Secretary Charles Clarke and Professor Brendan Simms argue that a failing US approach, exemplified by President Trump’s perceived naivete in dealing with Russia, necessitates a European-led initiative.

Clarke expressed skepticism about Trump’s past attempts at negotiating ceasefires, particularly his 2019 dealings with North Korea and his recent “final” offer to Ukraine, which demanded territorial concessions to Russia. He believes Ukrainian President Zelenskyy would never accept the legal cession of Crimea.

Simms echoed these concerns, highlighting the possibility of a complete US withdrawal from the conflict. He advocates for a European security guarantee for Ukraine, but stresses the need for a genuine long-term commitment. He warns against a potential scenario where European countries use a US withdrawal as an excuse to reduce their own support. Simms points to growing German public opinion as an example of this concern.

Both experts downplayed Russia’s military capabilities, citing evidence that Russia’s territorial gains have significantly slowed and its losses are mounting. Recent analyses from the UK Ministry of Defence and the Institute for the Study of War show a dramatic decrease in Russian territorial acquisitions since early 2024. Furthermore, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence reports staggering Russian casualties, nearing one million. Clarke attributes this to low troop morale and problems within the Russian military command.

While acknowledging Europe’s challenges in replacing US intelligence and command capabilities, Simms advocates for a European mobile force, not to act as a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, but to be prepared for potential Russian aggression elsewhere, particularly in the Baltic states. He suggests focusing European support on providing Ukraine with long-range weaponry and air cover.

Despite the hurdles, Clarke believes a European-Ukrainian victory without US support is possible, though it’s a high-risk strategy. Simms argues that overcoming the fear of nuclear retaliation is key. While Putin has repeatedly threatened nuclear weapons, he hasn’t used them despite significant Ukrainian territorial gains. Simms believes this inaction highlights a miscalculation of deterrence on the part of the West. He blames this fear, partly fueled by Putin’s rhetoric, for hindering decisive action and prolonging the conflict.

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