Fri May 09 07:20:00 UTC 2025: ## Putin’s Victory Day Gamble: Peace Hopes, Shifting Alliances, and a Looming Crisis

**Moscow, May 10** – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 80th anniversary Victory Day celebrations showcased a complex interplay of nationalistic fervor, strategic alliances, and a growing reliance on a potential peace deal brokered by former US President Donald Trump. While the parade featured a show of support from countries in the Global South, notably China’s Xi Jinping, the absence of traditional World War II allies highlighted Russia’s increasing isolation.

This year’s event wasn’t just a commemoration of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany; it served as a powerful propaganda tool, framing the war in Ukraine as a continuation of the fight against the “West,” with Europe now cast as the primary enemy, a stark reversal from previous narratives. This shift reflects a significant change in Russian public perception, spurred by hopes of US-mediated peace talks under a Trump administration.

Recent polls indicate a surge in pro-US sentiment among Russians, with many viewing Trump as a pragmatic peacemaker capable of securing a favorable agreement for Moscow. This optimism is fueled by a desire to end the costly war in Ukraine, even if it means concessions on territory. However, this newfound hope masks a deeper underlying crisis.

The author, Andrei Kolesnikov, a columnist for Newtimes.ru and Novaya Gazeta, points to the significant economic and social challenges facing Russia. The war’s human cost and economic strain are taking a toll, yet a “consensus of silence” prevails among much of the population. While many desire peace, significant obstacles remain, including the potential for economic disruption once military spending is reduced and the reintegration of hundreds of thousands of veterans into civilian life.

Putin faces a difficult balancing act. He must manage inflated expectations of peace, avoid destabilizing the economy, and satisfy the demands of a population increasingly weary of war. His continued reliance on Trump for a negotiated settlement, while potentially beneficial, introduces significant uncertainty. Trump’s potential withdrawal from peace efforts could leave Putin with no viable solution, exacerbating Russia’s internal problems.

Furthermore, Kolesnikov warns against overlooking the continuing repression within Russia. Despite hopes for peace, the authoritarian regime shows no signs of loosening its grip on power. The author concludes that even if peace arrives, the fundamental nature of the Putin regime and its inherent repression are unlikely to change. The future remains uncertain, hinging on the success—or failure—of Putin’s high-stakes gamble on a Trump-brokered peace.

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