Sat May 03 20:50:00 UTC 2025: **Churchill Downs Derby City Distaff Stakes: Long Shots Favored Over Top Contenders**
**LOUISVILLE, KY – May 2, 2024** – Horse racing expert analysis suggests that the $1 million Grade 1 Derby City Distaff Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3rd, presents a unique betting opportunity. While the favorites, Ways and Means, Scylla, and Vahva, are all listed at favorable odds (3-to-1, 4-to-1, and implied odds respectively), the expert cautions against these choices due to a significant layoff since their last race in November. The analysis argues that a six-month absence significantly impacts their chances of winning a seven-furlong race requiring peak fitness.
Instead, the expert highlights several long shots as more promising contenders. Kopion (2), returning from a three-month break, boasts impressive recent wins, including the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes and the Santa Monica Stakes, both at seven furlongs. Her strong training regimen under Hall-of-Fame trainer Richard Mandella adds to her appeal. Positano Sunset (11), the winner of the Grade 1 Madison Stakes, also presents a compelling case, offering 12-to-1 odds despite her recent successes. Emery (9), consistent performer and Madison Stakes runner-up, and My Mane Squeeze (13), a Churchill Downs winner at this distance, round out the list of recommended long-shot bets.
The expert recommends focusing on exacta bets, suggesting Hope Road (12) and Grand Job (15) as potential second-place finishers. The analysis concludes by suggesting specific wagering strategies: betting on Kopion and Positano Sunset at odds of 3-to-1 or higher; considering Emery at 4-to-1 or higher; and My Mane Squeeze at 8-to-1 or higher. A box bet combining Kopion, Emery, Positano Sunset, and My Mane Squeeze is also recommended. The race is scheduled for 4:50 PM Eastern.
First Piper 