Thu May 01 10:00:00 UTC 2025: ## Derby Day Showdown: Journalism Favored, But Upsets Possible in Kentucky Derby

**Louisville, KY** – The 151st Kentucky Derby is set to thunder into action this Saturday at Churchill Downs, kicking off the prestigious Triple Crown series. While Journalism, at 3-1 morning line odds, is the early favorite, racing expert Lane Gold of Kentucky’s Winners Circle cautions that the odds are far from settled.

Gold, in an interview with Yahoo Sports, highlighted several key contenders and long shots. Journalism, a four-time winner with only one prior defeat, boasts an impressive record, including victories in two major California prep races. However, Gold predicts his odds will increase to 4-1 or 5-1 by race day due to the field’s size and the return of trainer Bob Baffert. Gold praised jockey Umberto Rispoli, calling him an “underrated jockey,” as a key asset.

Other horses with strong potential, according to Gold, include:

* **Sovereignty (5-1 morning line):** Gold suggests his odds could climb to 7-1 or 8-1, predicting a mid-pack start and a strong finish under trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado. His previous win at Churchill Downs adds to his appeal.

* **Sandman (6-1 morning line):** A horse with a tendency to come from behind, Sandman’s success hinges on navigating traffic in the final stretch. His high-priced purchase and the expertise of jockey Jose Ortiz and trainer Mark Casse suggest significant potential.

* **Burnham Square (12-1):** This Churchill Downs-trained horse, a winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, demonstrates resilience and could benefit from his home-track advantage.

Long shot possibilities include:

* **Citizen Bull (20-1):** Gold acknowledges his all-or-nothing style, noting that a fast start is crucial for this Baffert-trained horse.

* **Grande (20-1):** Despite his relative inexperience, Gold highlights the combination of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez as significant assets.

Gold’s betting strategy favors Journalism as the top horse in exacta and trifecta bets, suggesting including long shots in the second and third positions for potentially higher payouts. He cautions that a significant upset could easily occur, predicting that a horse with odds of 30-1 or 40-1 might secure a second-place finish. The race, set to begin at 6:57 p.m. ET, promises a thrilling spectacle and unpredictable results.

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