Tue Apr 22 18:39:11 UTC 2025: **Global Recession Fears Rise Amid Trump’s Tariffs**

Washington D.C. – Leading economists and international financial institutions are sounding the alarm on rising global recession risks, largely attributed to President Trump’s escalating tariff policies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its Global Financial Stability Report released Tuesday, directly linked the increased global financial instability to the tariffs, noting that they have surpassed levels seen during the Great Depression.

The IMF slashed its US growth forecast to 1.8 percent for the year, down a full percentage point from last year’s projection and significantly lower than its previous forecast of 2.7 percent. China’s growth forecast was also downgraded, and Europe and Mexico are also expected to experience slower economic growth. Across Latin America and the Caribbean, the IMF anticipates a 1.4 percent decrease in growth.

These concerns are echoed by prominent investment banks. Goldman Sachs estimates a mere 0.5 percent US growth and assigns a 45 percent probability of a recession next year. JPMorgan Chase is even more pessimistic, putting the odds of a recession at 60 percent. A recent survey by the National Association for Business Economics found that over half of respondents believe the probability of a recession in 2025 could reach 49 percent.

Stuart Mackintosh, executive director of the Group of Thirty, highlighted the unprecedented impact of Trump’s actions, stating he couldn’t recall another instance where a single presidential act led to such a rapid and significant downgrade in global growth forecasts. The IMF also warned that higher interest rates caused by the tariffs are impacting emerging markets, forcing them to refinance debt at increased costs.

The rising uncertainty is further exacerbated by geopolitical risks, the IMF added. The warnings come as the US Federal Reserve also anticipates weaker growth this year. President Trump’s continued attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding his resignation, have drawn criticism from IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, who emphasized the importance of central bank independence.

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