Tue Apr 22 12:50:00 UTC 2025: ## NFL Draft Probabilities: ESPN’s Model Predicts Surprising Landing Spots for Top Prospects

**ESPN’s Draft Day Predictor offers a probabilistic look at the upcoming NFL draft, revealing potential surprises and highlighting the strategic challenges teams face.** The model, which incorporates expert mock drafts, scouting grades, and team needs, provides insights into the likelihood of players landing in specific spots.

**Quarterback Carousel:** While Cam Ward is the projected No. 1 pick, Shedeur Sanders’ draft trajectory is far less certain. While a top-three pick is possible (4% chance at No. 2, 7% at No. 3), the model suggests a higher probability of him being selected by the New Orleans Saints at No. 9 (27%). There’s also a significant chance he could fall to the Colts (No. 14, 24%) or even the Steelers (No. 21). Jaxson Dart, another top quarterback prospect, presents an even more unpredictable path, with a 24% chance of landing with the Steelers at No. 21, but a notable 24% chance of slipping out of the first round entirely.

**Other Key Positions:** The model suggests Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and Louisville’s Tyler Shough are likely second-round picks, while the top running back, Ashton Jeanty, is most likely to go to the Raiders at No. 6, although a slide to No. 10 isn’t impossible (13%). Top wide receiver prospects Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan are expected to go early, but the model suggests Dallas may not need to trade up for McMillan. Tight ends Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland both have a high probability of being selected by the Colts at No. 14. The model also projects a coin flip scenario for wide receivers Matthew Golden, Emeka Egbuka and Luther Burden.

**Strategic Decisions:** The model reveals the risks and rewards of trading up. The Chicago Bears, for example, face a decision regarding Jeanty, weighing the cost of trading up against the chance he might fall to them. Similarly, the New England Patriots must decide if trading down to acquire better protection for their quarterback is worth the risk of missing out on top offensive tackles Will Campbell and Armand Membou. The Kansas City Chiefs, meanwhile, face a decision on which late-round offensive lineman to select.

**Sleeper Picks:** ESPN highlighted several players with a 5-20% chance of being first-round picks, including Florida State cornerback Azareye’h Thomas (19%) and Tennessee defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott (11%).

The ESPN Draft Day Predictor offers a fascinating glimpse into the complexities of the NFL draft, emphasizing the probabilistic nature of the event and the strategic considerations teams must weigh. The model’s predictions, while not guarantees, provide valuable context for understanding potential draft-day surprises.

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