Wed Apr 16 08:49:07 UTC 2025: ## International Pressure Mounts on Hezbollah to Disarm Amidst Lebanon’s Fragile State

**Beirut, Lebanon** – Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese Shia militia, faces unprecedented pressure to disarm, driven by a confluence of international and domestic factors. The US, backed by some Lebanese factions, is leading the charge, leveraging Hezbollah’s weakened state following last year’s devastating Israeli war and the fall of its Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad.

The war significantly depleted Hezbollah’s arsenal and leadership, leaving it vulnerable. US Deputy Special Envoy to the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, characterized Hezbollah as a “cancer” that needs to be removed, emphasizing the need for economic reforms to curb the group’s financial independence.

While Hezbollah hasn’t publicly committed to disarmament, its position is precarious. Reconstruction efforts in areas with strong Hezbollah support depend on foreign aid, creating a powerful incentive for cooperation. However, sources close to the group suggest disarmament would only occur in exchange for substantial concessions, potentially including an Israeli withdrawal from occupied southern Lebanese territory. A senior Hezbollah official reportedly floated this possibility, though the group later denied it. Currently, Hezbollah insists on a national dialogue about defense strategy but refuses to discuss disarmament while Israeli occupation persists.

Despite its weakened state, Hezbollah retains considerable internal power, capable of challenging domestic actors. Analysts warn that pushing the group too hard risks igniting civil strife.

Domestically, a consensus is emerging amongst Lebanese powerbrokers, including President Joseph Aoun, that the state should be the sole holder of arms. This stance is supported by France but faces resistance from some quarters, particularly within the US administration and the Lebanese Forces (LF), a right-wing Christian party. The LF is advocating for a hardline approach with a strict six-month deadline for disarmament.

Ultimately, the fate of Hezbollah’s weapons may be decided outside Lebanon. US-Iran talks, ostensibly about Iran’s nuclear program, are expected to address the issue of Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah. Experts believe that Iran’s continued support for Hezbollah may depend on the outcome of these negotiations.

While the possibility of Hezbollah disarming seems more realistic than ever, some caution against a solely top-down approach. Analysts emphasize the need for a strategy that addresses the social and political needs of Hezbollah’s support base, fostering a sense of national belonging and reducing reliance on the group. However, the US appears focused on a broader regional strategy, potentially overlooking the nuances of Lebanon’s internal dynamics.

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