Sun Mar 23 23:40:00 UTC 2025: ## Lightning Strike Again? Tampa Bay Favored to Beat Vegas Despite Odds

**Las Vegas, NV** – The Tampa Bay Lightning are looking to extend their winning streak against the Vegas Golden Knights this Sunday at T-Mobile Arena. Despite Vegas being listed as the betting favorite (-126), expert Tony Sartori predicts a Lightning victory, citing Tampa Bay’s superior performance over the past two months.

Sartori highlights Tampa Bay’s impressive offensive generation, ranking second in the league in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) and high-danger scoring chances. He contrasts this with Vegas’s performance, which he describes as around league average. Furthermore, Sartori emphasizes the goaltending advantage, with Andrei Vasilevskiy (33-18-3, .920 SV%, 2.23 GAA) expected to start for Tampa Bay, boasting a perfect 3-0 record against Vegas in their last three matchups. In contrast, Vegas’ Ilya Samsonov has struggled recently, allowing three or more goals in five of his last six starts.

Sartori’s best bet is the Lightning moneyline (+105 at FanDuel), further suggesting a same-game parlay including goals from Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel, leveraging Vegas’s weak penalty kill. He notes both players excel on the power play and at even strength, each having surpassed 30 goals this season. The article concludes with standard disclaimers regarding gambling laws and responsible betting practices.

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