Sat Mar 15 20:40:00 UTC 2025: ## Social Security COLA Increase Predicted to Drop in 2026

**Glasgow, Scotland** – New forecasts suggest a significant decrease in the annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits in 2026. According to the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) and independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson, the increase is projected to fall to 2.2 percent, down from 2.5 percent in 2025 and a considerable drop from the 8.7 percent increase seen in 2023.

The COLA, which impacts nearly 70 million recipients, is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). This year’s prediction follows a slowdown in overall inflation, with February’s CPI rising by only 0.2 percent compared to January’s 0.5 percent. While annual inflation eased to 2.8 percent, analyst Mary Johnson notes that the projected COLA still lags behind current inflation rates.

“COLA doesn’t keep pace with real inflation,” Johnson stated. “The year-over-year rate of inflation in February for the CPI-W is now up to 2.7 percent, meaning our 2.5 percent COLA that we received for 2025 is falling behind real inflation.”

Shannon Benton, executive director of the TSCL, expressed concern about the impact on seniors. “If COLA comes in where forecast, seniors will be struggling,” Benton told MarketWatch. “We all know prices continue to be high.”

The official announcement from the Social Security Administration (SSA) is expected in October. This year’s projected decrease highlights the fluctuating nature of the COLA, which has ranged from zero percent in 2016 to the record high of 8.7 percent in 2023. The COLA impacts all SSA-administered programs and will be applied in January 2026.

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