Thu Feb 27 18:25:43 UTC 2025: ## Trump’s Ukraine Raw Materials Deal Faces Uncertain Future

**Kiev/Washington D.C. –** A proposed deal between the Trump administration and Ukraine granting the U.S. preferential access to Ukraine’s vast mineral reserves is raising eyebrows due to significant uncertainties surrounding the feasibility and profitability of the undertaking. While the agreement, reportedly allocating 50% of Ukraine’s state-owned natural resource revenues to a Ukrainian investment fund, promises access to potentially 5% of the world’s critical raw materials including graphite, lithium, and uranium, the actual value remains highly questionable.

Economic Pravda reports that the deal lacks U.S. security guarantees. The significant challenge lies in outdated Soviet-era surveys which provide a vague picture of Ukraine’s mineral wealth. Only about 8,000 out of 20,000 surveyed mineral deposits are deemed viable for development, requiring a massive estimated $15 billion investment just for the 10 largest prospects. Developing a single large rare earth deposit like Novopoltasvke is estimated to cost $300 million.

Furthermore, the extraction process is anticipated to be both costly and time-consuming. The lack of refining infrastructure in the U.S., unlike China’s dominant 90% processing capacity, means that even extracted minerals would likely need to be shipped to China for refinement, negating potential cost advantages. Adding to the complexity, a significant portion of Ukraine’s promising mineral reserves are currently occupied by Russia, representing an estimated $350 billion in lost resources, according to Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.

This leaves President Trump with a difficult decision: whether to bolster support for Ukraine to reclaim its occupied territories, or to pursue a potentially less lucrative agreement that sidesteps the considerable challenges and risks involved in developing Ukraine’s mineral wealth. Analysts at S&P Global have cautioned that extracting these resources might not be economically viable given the technical hurdles and high costs involved. The deal’s future hinges on navigating these substantial uncertainties.

Read More