Fri Feb 28 06:10:00 UTC 2025: **LeBron James’ Unprecedented Bad Luck: Lakers Star’s On-Court Struggles Defy Logic**
LOS ANGELES, CA – Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James is experiencing a statistical anomaly unlike anything seen in his 22-year NBA career. Despite averaging impressive numbers (25 points, 9 assists, 8 rebounds), James’ on-court performance has, paradoxically, been detrimental to the Lakers’ success this season. For the first time ever, the team performs significantly better when he sits on the bench.
This isn’t a case of age-related decline, according to advanced analytics. Instead, James is suffering from an unprecedented level of bad luck, primarily related to three-point shooting. While on the court, the Lakers’ three-point shooting percentage plummets, while opponents inexplicably heat up. This trend holds true even when controlling for shot quality; James’ teammates are missing wide-open shots at an alarming rate when he’s on the floor. Conversely, when James rests, the Lakers’ three-point percentage soars, and opponents struggle.
The data paints a stark picture: The Lakers have a significantly worse net rating with James on the court (-0.8) compared to when he’s on the bench (+8.4). This unusual negative on/off split is largely attributable to a staggering -10.3% three-point luck score, a figure unseen in the modern NBA era. This suggests the Lakers should actually perform better with James on the court once his team’s three-point shooting regresses to the mean.
The impact extends beyond regular season statistics. James’ historically bad luck has impacted his All-NBA candidacy, though advanced metrics that adjust for luck still place him among the league’s elite. His upcoming contract negotiations will likely also be influenced by this unusual trend, though the data suggests his on-court performance isn’t the issue.
Despite this unprecedented adversity, the arrival of Luka Doncic offers a potential solution. The early data shows a positive net rating when both stars share the court, hinting at a potentially potent combination that could propel the Lakers deep into the playoffs. The team’s recent improvement, with better on/off splits for James since mid-January, supports the idea that this is a matter of unusually poor luck that will likely even out. The Lakers’ championship hopes, therefore, are not necessarily diminished, but rather tied to the statistical regression of James’ remarkably poor three-point shooting luck.
First Piper 