Mon Feb 17 07:10:00 UTC 2025: ## Newly Discovered Asteroid Poses Slim, but Slightly Increased, Chance of Earth Impact in 2032

**CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP)** — A newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has a slightly increased, but still minuscule, chance of impacting Earth in 2032, according to NASA and the European Space Agency. Current calculations put the probability of impact at approximately 2%, meaning there’s a 98% chance the asteroid will safely pass by.

First spotted by the University of Hawaii’s asteroid impact alert system in December, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter. Scientists emphasize that the probability is likely to fluctuate as observations improve, and it is quite possible the risk will eventually drop to zero.

The increase in the impact probability reflects refinements in the asteroid’s orbital calculations. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) director Paul Chodas stated that this fluctuation is expected and that the probability is likely to decrease further. He reassured the public that there is no cause for alarm.

Observations of 2024 YR4 will continue in March using the James Webb Space Telescope before the asteroid becomes too distant to track. Further observations will resume in 2028 when the asteroid’s orbit brings it closer to Earth again. These observations will provide crucial data to better determine its size and refine its trajectory, allowing scientists to precisely assess the potential impact and its severity.

Larry Denneau, senior software engineer with the University of Hawaii’s alert system, similarly downplayed the risk, urging patience and emphasizing that the current probability is not cause for concern.

The potential consequences of an impact would depend on the asteroid’s final size. A smaller asteroid would likely cause localized damage, while a larger one could have significantly more severe global impacts. NASA has previous experience with planetary defense, having successfully altered the orbit of a smaller asteroid in 2022 through the DART mission. Further observations will determine the level of potential threat, allowing for planning for any necessary deflection efforts.

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