Sat Feb 01 00:46:41 UTC 2025: ## India’s Economic Survey Predicts Moderate Growth, Highlights Challenges and Opportunities

**New Delhi, January 31** – India’s Economic Survey 2024-25, presented today by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, projects a GDP growth rate of 6.3-6.8% for the fiscal year 2025-26. This marks a slowdown from the previous year’s estimated 6.4% and significantly lower than the 8% needed to achieve the government’s “Viksit Bharat” (Developed India) goal by 2047.

The survey, prepared by the Department of Economic Affairs, highlights both positive trends and significant challenges. While the agriculture and industrial sectors performed well, exceeding pre-pandemic levels, and the services sector returned to trend, the overall growth forecast reflects global uncertainties and the end of the “golden era of globalization,” as termed by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran. He cited geopolitical and policy uncertainties as contributing factors.

The survey emphasizes the need to boost private sector investment, improve employment prospects, and strengthen manufacturing and export capabilities. It suggests a continued focus on infrastructure development (“supply-side push”) alongside demand-side measures such as tax breaks and investments in human capital. Fiscal consolidation remains a key priority.

Several key findings emerged from the survey:

* **Employment:** The percentage of self-employed individuals increased to 58.4% in 2023-24, reflecting a rise in entrepreneurial activity. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.2% in 2023-24.
* **Global Capability Centres (GCCs):** India’s GCCs are expected to see a four-fold increase in global roles, reaching 30,000 by 2030.
* **Climate Change:** A lack of funding from developed countries for climate mitigation in developing nations may lead to a reassessment of climate targets.
* **Manufacturing:** India’s reliance on China for various products poses a risk, highlighting the need for diversification and investment in domestic manufacturing. The steel sector, in particular, remains a net importer despite price pressures.
* **Artificial Intelligence:** The survey warns of the potential for AI to displace workers, urging companies to manage its introduction carefully and advocating for regulatory frameworks and safety nets to mitigate job losses.
* **Financialization:** The survey cautions against the risks of excessive financialization and asset price bubbles.

The survey’s findings have generated mixed reactions. While some economists view the projections optimistically, highlighting opportunities in sectors like manufacturing, infrastructure, and AI, others express concerns about the slower-than-desired growth rate and the need for further reforms in areas such as land and labor. The Congress party criticized the government for not addressing issues like GST reform and tax policies.

The Economic Survey sets the stage for the Union Budget 2025, which will be presented tomorrow. The government will likely use the survey’s insights to inform its fiscal policies for the coming year.

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