Tue Jan 28 14:40:00 UTC 2025: ## Russian Forces Claim Victory in Velyka Novosilka, but Ukrainian Resistance Continues
**KYIV, UKRAINE** — Russian forces have claimed to have fully captured the settlement of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, according to a January 26 report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). However, conflicting reports and ongoing fighting cast doubt on the extent of Russian control.
While the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) declared complete seizure and celebrated the victory with unusual fanfare, ISW analysis suggests that Russian forces occupy approximately 89% of the settlement. Geolocated footage shows Russian advances, but Ukrainian sources, including a Ukrainian brigade operating within Velyka Novosilka and Khortytsia Group of Forces spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov, confirm ongoing fighting and deny complete Russian occupation. The Ukrainian forces report heavy fighting and parity in artillery and drone capabilities but a significant Russian manpower advantage. The Mokri Yaly River is hindering further Russian advances.
The ISW report notes the disproportionate amount of publicity surrounding the Russian claim, suggesting a potential information operation aimed at influencing Western perceptions of the war and undermining international support for Ukraine. The Russian MoD’s announcements, including footage of thermobaric strikes and flag raisings, contrast with their typical reporting of similar events.
Despite the claimed victory, Russian gains in western Donetsk Oblast remain slow and significantly below the pace expected in modern mechanized warfare. The ISW report highlights the challenges posed by the river systems, potentially hindering further rapid Russian advances beyond Velyka Novosilka. The successful seizure of Velyka Novosilka now presents the Russian military command with a critical decision point regarding the redeployment of the Eastern Military District (EMD) forces. The redeployment of these forces will indicate future operational priorities for the spring and summer campaigns.
Elsewhere on the front lines, the report details continued, albeit largely unsuccessful, Russian offensive operations in various sectors including Kupyansk, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, with Russian forces also making slow gains in the Borova and Kurakhove directions. Ukrainian forces conducted a second strike on a major Russian oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast.
In other developments, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko secured a heavily contested reelection victory, and Russia announced the imminent deployment of Oreshnik ballistic missiles to Belarus. The ISW maintains that this deployment does not significantly alter the existing balance of power.
The ISW report is based solely on publicly available information, including Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reports, social media, and commercially available satellite imagery.
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