Fri Dec 27 02:05:59 UTC 2024: ## Azerbaijan Airlines Plane Crash: Experts Suspect Russian Air Defense Fire

**Aktau, Kazakhstan/Moscow, Russia –** The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger plane near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, 2024, killing 38 and injuring 29, is increasingly being attributed to Russian air defense fire. While official investigations are underway, aviation experts and Azerbaijani officials point to evidence suggesting the plane was struck by a surface-to-air missile.

The plane, en route from Baku to Grozny, Russia, was diverted to Aktau under unclear circumstances. Cell phone footage shows a steep descent and explosion. Analysis of wreckage reveals damage consistent with shrapnel from a surface-to-air missile, possibly a Pantsyr-S1 system, according to several experts. Mark Zee of OPSGroup estimates a 90-99% probability of a SAM attack. Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security firm, also concluded the plane was likely shot down by a Russian air defense system.

Azerbaijan observed a national day of mourning, with President Ilham Aliyev stating that the plane changed course due to worsening weather. However, Azerbaijani lawmaker Rasim Musabekov directly accused Moscow, demanding an apology and compensation. He alleges the plane was fired upon over Grozny. This claim is supported by Azerbaijani news website Caliber, which also questions why Russian authorities didn’t allow an emergency landing in Grozny despite reportedly repelling a drone attack in the area.

While Russian authorities, including Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, urge caution before the conclusion of investigations, Chechnya’s Security Council head confirmed air defenses did shoot down drones near Grozny on the same day. Kazakh officials also cautioned against jumping to conclusions, calling the allegations unfounded.

The investigation is ongoing, with multiple nations cooperating. The passengers included citizens of Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Nine injured Russian survivors were flown to Moscow for treatment. The incident underscores the escalating risks of air travel in regions affected by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

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