Sat Dec 07 19:42:00 UTC 2024: **Surprise Jihadist Offensive Shakes Syria: Assad Faces Existential Threat**

**Damascus, Syria – December 8, 2024** – Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, once a lieutenant of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has launched a stunning offensive across Syria, seizing Aleppo and advancing towards Homs, posing a grave threat to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main jihadist opposition group, orchestrated a surprise attack from Idlib province last week, capitalizing on regional distractions, including the recent Israel-Hezbollah conflict. His forces swiftly captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, with regime troops offering little resistance. The advance continues towards Homs, a strategically vital city, putting Assad’s power base directly at risk. Al-Jolani has openly declared his aim to oust Assad.

This offensive marks a significant escalation in the Syrian Civil War. While the Islamic State, which al-Jolani initially helped establish, has been weakened, HTS, under al-Jolani’s leadership, has quietly built a substantial military force and infrastructure in Idlib, maintaining a tense but largely peaceful status quo for years. He has skillfully distanced himself from al-Qaeda, while retaining a Salafi-jihadist ideology.

Al-Jolani’s rise is a complex narrative. Initially a lieutenant to Baghdadi, he later split to maintain autonomy in Syria. He built al-Nusra Front, later rebranded as HTS, into a powerful force, attracting foreign fighters and implementing a strict Sharia-based system in Idlib. He has carefully avoided direct conflict with Israel and the US, while consolidating his power base.

The current offensive benefits from several factors: Hezbollah’s weakening after its recent conflict with Israel, Iranian losses in Syria, and Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine. Al-Jolani’s opportunistic move has exposed the vulnerabilities of the Assad regime, which, despite receiving support from Russia and Iran, appears increasingly unable to defend its territory. The situation raises concerns of a renewed surge in violence and instability within Syria.

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