Mon Nov 25 19:14:18 UTC 2024: ## Netanyahu Capitalizes on Trump Transition, Fears of Increased Violence Mount
**Washington/Beirut —** As the Biden administration enters its final weeks, concerns are rising that Israel will escalate its conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, having already established close communication with Trump, is suspected of using this transition period to maximize military action against its adversaries.
Trump’s reported request for Israel to resolve the conflicts before January 20th has fueled speculation that Netanyahu might announce cease-fires as a gesture of goodwill to the incoming administration. However, diplomats and analysts fear a different scenario: a significant escalation of violence in the 70 days remaining before the inauguration. This period offers Israel a window to inflict maximum damage on Hamas and Hezbollah, both supported by Iran.
Furthermore, Israeli officials, emboldened by Trump’s victory and his pro-Israel cabinet appointments (including Mike Huckabee as potential ambassador), are considering annexing parts of the occupied West Bank—a move deemed illegal under international law. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has declared this “the year” for full Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank.
The conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon are already devastating. The October 7th Hamas attack on Israel triggered a brutal Israeli response, resulting in over 43,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza and the destruction of much of its infrastructure. The conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, initiated by Hezbollah rocket attacks on October 8th, has claimed over 3,800 Lebanese lives. Cease-fire talks have stalled, with Qatar withdrawing as a mediator.
While the Biden administration issued an ultimatum to Israel in October regarding humanitarian aid to Gaza, the deadline passed without significant consequences. The administration has signaled it won’t take further action to curb Israel’s actions before the end of its term, leaving Israel largely free from US pressure.
Despite ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, including a recent US proposal, Israel continues its air assault in Lebanon, including attacks in Beirut. The recent targeting of a senior Hezbollah official has raised further concerns.
Both Palestinians and Lebanese fear that neither a Biden nor a Trump administration will significantly alter the trajectory of the conflicts, leaving them vulnerable to increased violence in the coming weeks.
First Piper 