Tue Nov 26 09:00:00 UTC 2024: ## Ruble Weakness Expected to Continue as Sanctions Bite

**MOSCOW** – The Russian ruble is expected to continue its weakening trend in the coming months, according to several reports and analysts. Import companies are already factoring in an exchange rate of 120-125 rubles per dollar in their internal calculations, anticipating further declines to 110-120 rubles per dollar within the next three to six months.

This downward pressure is attributed primarily to the impact of recent US sanctions targeting Russia’s financial sector, particularly the blacklisting of Gazprombank, a major player in facilitating foreign currency inflows. The sanctions have created a ruble surplus and a foreign currency deficit, exacerbated by increased government spending at the end of the year.

Analysts predict a shortage of $2-4 billion in foreign currency supply monthly, leading to market instability. The situation is further complicated by the anticipation of a 15th EU sanctions package, potentially targeting Russian LNG, shadow shipping, and the use of foreign technologies. Some analysts even warn of a potential return to the extreme lows seen during the initial weeks of the war in Ukraine, when the dollar surged past 120 rubles.

Finn Flare, a major Russian clothing retailer, expects to pass on increased currency costs to consumers if the ruble falls to 115 per dollar. While some hope for a rebound, most businesses are preparing for further weakening, preferring to build in a larger margin of error to mitigate potential losses. The overall sentiment among analysts is pessimistic regarding the ruble’s near-term prospects.

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