Mon Nov 18 16:29:53 UTC 2024: ## Sudan’s Hidden War: Death Toll Estimates Exceed 60,000, but True Figure Likely Much Higher

**Khartoum, Sudan** – While major global conflicts dominate headlines, the ongoing civil war in Sudan, now 18 months long, continues to claim thousands of lives with little international attention. A new analysis from public health and human rights scholars estimates at least 62,000 deaths, but warns the true toll could be significantly higher.

The conflict, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, has displaced over 14 million people and created a humanitarian crisis marked by ethnic cleansing, mass displacement, food scarcity, and the spread of disease.

Precise death tolls are challenging to obtain due to the ongoing conflict, limited access to data, and the difficulty in differentiating between direct and indirect deaths. Indirect deaths, resulting from conflict-exacerbated factors like lack of healthcare and food shortages, are particularly difficult to quantify.

Using data from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), which recorded nearly 19,000 direct conflict deaths in the first 15 months, the researchers employed various multipliers based on previous conflicts to estimate indirect deaths. Employing a conservative multiplier of 2.3 indirect deaths for every direct death, the researchers arrived at an estimated 62,000 total deaths. However, using higher multipliers from other studies, the total death toll could reach as high as 130,000.

The report highlights the fragility of Sudan’s healthcare system even before the conflict, noting higher child mortality rates and lower life expectancy compared to other conflict zones like Gaza and Ukraine. The targeting of healthcare facilities, the disruption of aid mechanisms, and the widespread malnutrition contribute significantly to the high indirect death toll. The Darfur region has been particularly hard-hit, with a famine declared in parts of the region.

The researchers emphasize that their estimates are conservative, acknowledging the significant challenges in collecting accurate data during an active conflict. They stress the need for continued attention to the crisis in Sudan, urging the international community not to overlook the immense human cost of this largely ignored conflict.

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