Tue Oct 08 09:11:06 UTC 2024: ## Exit Polls Go Wrong Again: BJP Triumphs in Haryana, Congress-NC Alliance Secures Victory in J&K
**New Delhi:** Exit polls have once again failed to accurately predict the outcome of state elections, with the recent results in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir defying pre-poll predictions.
While most exit polls had predicted a defeat for the BJP in both states, the party managed to secure a resounding victory in Haryana, defying the anti-incumbency sentiment. The BJP had aimed for a hat-trick in the state, but exit polls suggested a significant setback.
In Jammu & Kashmir, the exit polls favoured a Congress-National Conference alliance, predicting a hung assembly. However, the alliance has secured a clear majority, confirming their victory.
While the exit polls failed to anticipate the BJP’s win in Haryana, they somewhat accurately predicted the outcome in Jammu & Kashmir. While most exit polls predicted a hung assembly, they did not predict a clear majority for the Congress-National Conference alliance.
Notably, almost all exit polls had predicted a Congress victory in Haryana, projecting the party to win a majority of seats.
**Exit Poll Predictions vs. Actual Results:**
**Haryana:**
* **Daink Bhaskar:** Congress (44-54 seats), BJP (15-29 seats), JJP (0-1 seat), INLD (1-5 seats), Others (4-9 seats)
* **Republic TV-Matrix:** Congress (55-62 seats), BJP (18-24 seats), JJP (3 seats), INLD (3-6 seats), Others (2-5 seats)
* **Dhruv Research:** Congress (50-64 seats), BJP (22-32 seats), Others (2-8 seats)
* **People’s Pulse:** Congress (49-61 seats), BJP (20-32 seats), AANL (2-3 seats), JJP (0-1 seat), Others (3-7 seats)
**Actual Result:** BJP secured a comfortable majority, while Congress suffered a significant setback.
**Jammu & Kashmir:**
* **Daink Bhaskar:** Congress-NC alliance (35-40 seats), BJP (20-25 seats), PDP (4-7 seats), Others (12-18 seats)
* **People’s Pulse:** Congress-NC alliance (46-50 seats), BJP (23-27 seats), PDP (7-11 seats), Others (4-10 seats)
* **C-Voter:** Congress-NC alliance (40-48 seats), BJP (27-32 seats), PDP (6-12 seats), Others (6-11 seats)
* **Republic TV-Matrix:** Congress-NC alliance (31-36 seats), BJP (28-30 seats), PDP (5-7 seats), Others (8-16 seats)
**Actual Result:** Congress-National Conference alliance secured a clear majority, while BJP won a smaller number of seats than predicted.
The inaccurate predictions of the exit polls highlight the complexities of electoral predictions and the influence of various factors that can affect voting patterns.
First Piper 