Wed Sep 25 07:30:26 UTC 2024: ## Russia’s Will to Fight in Ukraine: Understanding the Limits
**By Ben Connable**
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has raised questions about Russia’s seemingly unwavering will to fight. While many Western analysts perceive Russians as having an inexhaustible capacity for sacrifice, a closer look at historical and cultural factors suggests that Russia’s will to fight is not invincible.
Despite exhibiting a seemingly superhuman capacity for enduring hardship and suffering, Russia has a history of breaking under pressure. It withdrew from Afghanistan in the 1980s and from Chechnya in the 1990s. Understanding the historical and cultural influences on Russia’s approach to conflict can offer valuable insights into when and how their will to fight might break.
Key factors shaping Russia’s will to fight include:
* **Trauma:** The collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent economic turmoil have instilled a deep sense of vulnerability and fear in many Russians. This trauma fuels a sense of national unity and a willingness to accept hardship.
* **Nationalism:** Russia has a long history of defending against perceived external threats, which has fostered a strong sense of nationalism and willingness to make sacrifices. The Great Patriotic War (World War II) plays a central role in this narrative.
* **Spirituality:** Russian Orthodox spirituality emphasizes obedience to authority and the importance of sacrifice. The church has actively supported Putin’s war narrative, framing it as a holy war.
* **Fatalism:** A combination of trauma, nationalism, and spirituality has contributed to a sense of fatalism among many Russians, who are willing to accept their fate, regardless of the cost.
These factors contribute to a “tragic passivity” that has rendered many Russians vulnerable to Putin’s manipulations. However, history suggests that even this seemingly unwavering will to fight has limits.
While the battlefield losses and economic strain are significant, the intersection of these two factors could ultimately be Russia’s breaking point.
**Lessons from History**
Historical examples like the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and the first Chechen war demonstrate that Russia’s will to fight is not limitless. The combination of casualties, economic decline, and a loss of faith in the war’s purpose can ultimately lead to a decline in popular support.
**The Potential for Victory**
The current Ukrainian and Western strategy of pressuring Russia through battlefield losses and economic compression has a good chance of success. While Russia may be able to maintain a facade of resilience in the short term, the long-term impact of these pressures will inevitably take their toll.
Understanding Russia’s will to fight and its potential vulnerabilities is crucial for sustaining Western support for Ukraine and achieving a decisive victory in this conflict.
First Piper 