Wed Sep 25 03:26:19 UTC 2024: ## Climate Change Doubled Likelihood of Devastating Central European Floods
**Vienna, Austria** – A new study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) has revealed that human-caused climate change doubled the likelihood of the intense rainfall that triggered devastating floods across Central Europe earlier this month. The floods, caused by Storm Boris, claimed 24 lives and caused widespread damage in Romania, Poland, Czechia, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, and Germany.
The study, conducted by a team of scientists from Imperial College London and other institutions, analyzed weather data and used climate models to compare the likelihood of such events in a world without human-caused climate change. Their findings indicate that the four-day downpour, the heaviest on record for Central Europe, was twice as likely due to the warming caused by burning fossil fuels.
The researchers also found that climate change intensified the rainfall by 7% to 20%. “These floods highlight the devastating results of fossil fuel-driven warming,” stated Joyce Kimutai, the lead author of the study.
The most severe impacts were felt in the Polish-Czech border region and Austria, primarily in urban areas along major rivers. While the death toll was lower than previous catastrophic floods in the region, the infrastructure and emergency management systems were overwhelmed, requiring billions of euros for repairs.
The WWA study also warns that with continued warming, reaching 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the likelihood of such intense four-day storms could increase by 50%. These storms would also become more intense, posing a significant threat to the region.
The study has not yet been peer-reviewed, but it follows scientifically accepted techniques. “In any climate, you would expect to occasionally see records broken,” explained Friederike Otto, a climate scientist coordinating the attribution study team. “But to see records being broken by such large margins, that is really the fingerprint of climate change.”
The heavy rainfall was caused by a specific weather pattern known as a “Vb depression,” which forms when cold polar air meets warm air over the Alps. While the number of these depressions hasn’t changed significantly since the 1950s, climate change is intensifying their impact.
The WWA study highlights the urgent need to address climate change to mitigate the risks of extreme weather events like these floods. It serves as a stark reminder of the growing vulnerability of communities worldwide to the consequences of a warming planet.
First Piper 