Mon Sep 23 22:00:00 UTC 2024: ## Iran Refrains from Direct Attacks on Israel Amid Carrot-and-Stick Approach

**OilPrice.com** – Despite escalating tensions in the region, Iran has largely refrained from launching major direct attacks on Israel. Experts attribute this to a combination of factors, including the threat of overwhelming military retaliation from the U.S. and its allies, as well as the potential for a new nuclear deal.

“The U.S. has made it very clear to Tehran that any major attack on Israel could lead to a huge conventional weapons retaliation,” stated a senior figure in the E.U.’s security complex. This threat, coupled with the prospect of a revised nuclear deal, has effectively deterred Iran from escalating the conflict.

Iran’s current economic struggles also play a role. The country faces a growing budget deficit, runaway inflation, and a depreciating currency, making oil exports a vital economic lifeline. A new nuclear deal could potentially alleviate these pressures and boost Iran’s economy.

The possibility of a renewed JCPOA, a 2015 agreement aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program, has been hinted at by Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. However, the FATF (Financial Action Task Force), which sets standards to prevent money laundering and terrorism financing, could pose a hurdle. The FATF’s stringent requirements would need to be met to facilitate a deal.

Despite the potential for a diplomatic resolution, concerns remain about Iran’s nuclear program. The UK, France, and Germany recently warned of a significant increase in Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, while the U.S. alleges Iran has supplied Russia with ballistic missiles.

The situation remains volatile, with the future of the Israel-Hamas conflict and the potential for a new nuclear deal remaining uncertain. The delicate balancing act between military force and diplomacy continues to shape the region’s future.

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