Fri Sep 20 12:14:52 UTC 2024: ## Western Restrictions Hamper Ukraine’s F-16 Effectiveness, Experts Say
**KIEV** – While Ukraine eagerly awaits the arrival of F-16 fighter jets, military experts warn that Western restrictions on targeting within Russia significantly limit their potential effectiveness. These restrictions prevent Ukraine from striking key sources of Russian attacks, forcing them to engage in a more difficult defensive strategy.
“The relationship between Western limitations and the effectiveness of Ukraine’s F-16s is under-appreciated,” states George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). “Current restrictions confine Ukraine to a limited strike area, allowing Russia to concentrate its air defenses in those regions.”
Lifting these restrictions would force Russia to redeploy its air defenses, creating more operational space for Ukrainian F-16s and potentially allowing them to operate closer to the frontlines. This would also enable Ukraine to target Russian air defenses more effectively, degrading their ability to counter Ukrainian aircraft.
“Shooting the archer is always better than shooting the arrow,” notes Michael Bohnert, an air warfare expert at the RAND Corporation, highlighting the importance of striking at the source of attacks.
While some restrictions were eased in May, allowing for limited use of shorter-range weapons on Russian soil, significant limitations remain on long-range weaponry, such as the Storm Shadow/SCALP and ATACMS missiles. This leaves Ukraine reliant on less powerful drones for strikes on Russian territory.
“Ukraine needs to be able to target Russia’s air defenses with Western-provided long-range weapons to enable its use of F-16 jets,” the ISW emphasizes.
Furthermore, the limited number of F-16s pledged by Western allies, currently estimated at over 85, is deemed insufficient for significant impact by many experts. Experts like Michael Clarke, a UK national security advisor, advocate for at least 200 F-16s alongside necessary support systems for optimal effectiveness.
While acknowledging the potential of the F-16s in bolstering Ukrainian defenses, experts caution that the jets are unlikely to be game-changers due to the limited number and restrictions on their capabilities.
The full potential of Ukraine’s F-16s remains uncertain, with much hinging on the removal of restrictions on strikes within Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to push for greater freedom to utilize its new aircraft, a crucial factor in the fight for air superiority and the future of the conflict.
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