Thu Sep 19 08:07:56 UTC 2024: ## Diesel Imports to Europe Surge in September: Middle East Rebound Outweighs US Dip
**LONDON** – Diesel imports into the European Union and the UK are set to reach their highest levels in 18 months this September, driven by a surge in shipments from the Middle East that is offsetting a slight decline in US supplies.
According to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Kpler, the region is expected to import approximately 1.36 million barrels of diesel and gasoil per day this month. This figure marks the highest level since April 2023, when Europe significantly boosted its diesel imports following the bloc’s embargo on Russian fuels in February of that year.
While European diesel demand has been relatively low in recent months due to sluggish industrial activity and reduced road fuel consumption, an anticipated reduction in European refinery processing this month is expected to restrict supplies. This seasonal autumn maintenance period, combined with economic run cuts by some refiners, is likely to exacerbate the diesel deficit in Europe.
“September is typically a high-demand month for freight and diesel in Europe, coinciding with the start of fall refinery maintenance season,” said Esteban Moreno Cots, senior demand analyst at Kpler. “The US is well-positioned to help close this gap.”
Despite a projected dip in US shipments to approximately 409,000 barrels per day in September, the US remains the top supplier to Europe. This figure still represents nearly double the supply from Saudi Arabia, which stands at approximately 212,000 barrels per day.
The decline in US shipments is attributed to subdued manufacturing activity in the US during the second and third quarters of 2024, which has reduced diesel and distillate fuel consumption. This in turn has depressed US prices, making arbitrage opportunities to Europe more profitable.
Meanwhile, diesel imports from the Middle East are poised to rise to roughly 664,000 barrels per day in September. Flows from the UAE and Oman are expected to be the highest recorded by Kpler since the start of 2017.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) attributes this surge to competition between low-cost US Gulf Coast refineries and Middle Eastern government-owned national oil refiners to secure the lowest regional price. “With Asian middle distillate markets well supplied, Middle Eastern products are now vying with US Gulf exports for European demand,” the IEA stated in a recent report.
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