Wed Sep 18 06:51:41 UTC 2024: ## Weak La Nina May Briefly Emerge in Pacific, Australian Bureau Cautious
Canberra, Australia – While conditions in the Pacific Ocean have become more La Nina-like in recent weeks, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology remains cautious about its formation, predicting a weak and short-lived event if it occurs.
La Nina, characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures off western South America, typically brings more rain to Australia, Southeast Asia, and India, while decreasing rainfall in the Americas. It has a significant impact on global agriculture.
While a US government forecaster assigned a 71% chance of a La Nina forming between September and November, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has been more hesitant. Their climate model suggests La Nina won’t develop, despite recent atmospheric indicators pointing towards a potential La Nina.
If a La Nina does form, the Bureau predicts it will be relatively weak and short-lived. This would be the fourth La Nina since 2020, an unusually high frequency given the typical occurrence of three to seven years. Previous La Nina events have led to record-breaking harvests in Australia.
However, the Bureau acknowledges that forecasting is becoming less certain due to the unprecedented period of high sea surface temperatures globally. This could lead to less predictable behavior of climate patterns like La Nina and El Nino.
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